Iliyasu Gadu
Ilgad2009@gmail.com
08035355706 (Texts only)
There is a saying in the Hausa language which goes thus; ‘’ Juma’ar da za ta yi kyau, daga Laraba a ke gane ta’’. Roughly translated in English this means that ‘’One can discern what a Friday will be from the Wednesday preceding it’’. In many ways this saying applies to Nigeria per the year 2025 which we have just entered.
To begin with, 2025 is the year of the mid-term in our political dispensation. In a couple of years hence in 2027, the next round of elections is scheduled to take place and the momentum to the elections by will begin to build up. Already assessment are on-going on the political terrain by political parties and observers of the political scene leading to hints of possible major re-alignment of political parties as well as criss-crossing of political figures.
2025 is also year in which Nigerians will begin to lookout for the positive results of the economic reforms that the administration of President Tinubu promised them. Will the prices of petroleum products come down to an affordable level enough to have an all- round positive effect on the cost of living? Will the administration be able to stabilize the naira and calm the foreign exchange markets? All these are issues that Nigerians are keenly watching out for and they expect positive results to start manifesting in their lives and livelihoods this year.
Another major headwind that would also have to be resolved this year is the Tax Reform Bill. This is a make-or-break and by all indications, a do-or-die bill for President Tinubu. It is the bill that will likely define the essence and vision of his administration. With this bill President Tinubu hopes to achieve three key visions; fiscal federalism, regionalism and re-election in 2027. This bill is the open-sesame that will enable President Tinubu to unfurl his overarching goal of restructuring Nigeria in the image he has long wanted. And from all indications, president Tinubu is determined to pursue his objectives no matter the opposition. He said so pointedly during the media chat he had with media men last month. Many have taken this to mean that the president intends to have his way by any means necessary on the bill which betrays a touch of desperation on his part. And this had the immediate effect of ramping up the opposition to this bill. Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi state fired off a broadside at the bill and pointedly warned president Tinubu darkly that he ‘’will see the other side of northerners’’ if he went ahead as he promised. Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf of Kano in a muted but no less poignant response stated that his state was opposed to the bill which he said would ‘’undermine the unity of the country’’. In Kebbi state during a book launch former Senator and Major-General Muhammadu Magoro (Rtd) called for total opposition to the bill citing similar reasons adduced by the two governors and other personalities in their opposition to the bill.
As President Tinubu is pursuing the passage of the bill he must be prepared for a determined push back from not just political opposition elements but Nigerians as well. Within the 18 months of his rule, Nigerians have had time to assess and realise that the objectives of president Tinubu goes deeper than what is seen at the surface. It is clear to most Nigerians that president Tinubu wants to push through a fundamental change to the Nigerian political and economic firmament in his own terms.
Accordingly the stage is set in 2025 for major political storms that will determine tenor of political contest leading up to the 2027 elections.
The opposition to Tinubu’s tax reforms are not necessarily due to its fiscal implications on the states and on those against it. The opposition to the reforms is a handy tool to be deployed by those who will wish to checkmate the president’s political objectives which they view as a clear and present danger to their political survival in the Nigerian political system.
How will this potentially epic political confrontation play out?
Were this to be a straightforward political battle between a ruling party against an opposition party or a coalition of opposition parties it would have been fairly predictable. But the 2025 political setting in Nigeria pits forces across party, regional, religious and ethnic lines. There are those who belong to the opposition parties, but support Tinubu; there are those who are in the same party with Tinubu but are lined up against him. And as we progress into the year 2025, Nigerians regardless of party affiliations will gradually coalesce into those in favour of Tinubu and those against him without prejudice to party affiliation. The two opposing forces will be locked in a political battle of fate and will; for Tinubu his political survival rests on passage of the passage of Tax Reform Bill while for the opposition their own political survival as well as that of the interests they represent also rests on successfully resisting the passage of the bill.
Whichever way it turns out, Nigerians can expect political uncertainties in the coming months on account of President Tinubu’s risky political gambit on the Tax Reform Bill. In anticipating the uncertainties President Tinubu would have mapped out his strategies to overcome the spirited opposition he is likely to encounter. But he should also bear in mind that even with a pliant and malleable National Assembly it is not a dead cert that he will get his way. There have been situations where he had been compelled to beat a hasty retreat against his inner instincts. One of such was the decision he had to take to order the release of the youngsters who were to be tried for treason having been detained for months under inhuman conditions. And yet again on an earlier occasion when the president was stopped as he prepared to intervene militarily on behalf of Ecowas to remove the military Junta that had overthrown the civilian administration of President Bazoum. On both occasions President Tinubu’s gung-ho intentions were checkmated the one by powerful global forces, the other by the resolute stand of northern Senators against it.
And whether he wins or loses on the Tax bill there are bound to be more problems. His winning will serve to drive the opposition into more determined efforts aimed at ambushing him in the run up to the 2027 elections. If he loses, it will devastate his political morale turning him into a political lame duck leading to the 2027 elections.
If the opposition successfully defeats the Tax Reform Bill, they will feel emboldened to believe they can see off president Tinubu at the 2027 elections. But rolling back the Bill may not necessarily result in defeating the president at the 2027 polls. Defeating the bill would provide a significant boost to the opposition that it can wear down president Tinubu in the run up and eventually take him down at the 2027 elections. But the factors that may enable the opposition defeat the Tax bill may not necessarily work in favour of the opposition at the 2027 polls. Even as a lame duck with the probable defeat of the Tax Bill, the opposition must have to be well organized and led to be able to do so.
By all indications, 2025 promises to be an interesting year for Nigerians as we begin the countdown for the 2027 elections.
